Abstract
India
experienced a unique, sudden, unprecedented and extraordinarily large
excess all-cause mortality event in April-July 2021, which is not
adequately explained as a “second wave” or as being caused by a new
variant of concern. After an overview of four recently published studies
that have quantified the April-July 2021 excess all-cause mortality
event, we give ten numbered arguments as to why we conclude that the
extraordinary mortality event was caused by India’s vaccine rollout in
its early stages. Therefore, it appears that the early rollout of the
vaccine in India in April-July 2021 was devastating, causing the deaths
of approximately 3.7 million residents, on administering approximately
350 million doses of the vaccine.
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India
experienced an extraordinary excess-mortality shock in April through
July 2021, not seen in any other country in the world.
The
mortality by week rose to almost 700% of its baseline value in April
2021, based on 90 municipalities in the state of Gujarat (Acosta et al.
2022; their Fig. 2), and the mortality by month rose to almost 400% of
its baseline value in July 2021, based on 19 Indian states, 1.27 billion
population (Leffler et al. 2022; their Fig. 1). To be clear, this
represents all-cause mortalities that are 7-fold (by week) and 4-fold
(by month) greater, respectively, than the pre-Covid (2019) all-cause
mortalities in India.
This
4-month April-July 2021 excess mortality event in India is described in
four independent studies published in leading medical journals (Acosta
et al. 2022; Jha et al. 2022; Leffler et al. 2022; Lewnard et al. 2022);
and it represents the great majority of excess all-cause deaths for the
entire Covid period examined since a pandemic was declared by the World
Health Organization on 11 March 2020.
Given
the extraordinary characteristics of the 4-month April-July 2021 excess
mortality event in India, it is useful to reproduce key figures from
the said studies, in order to grasp its significance and nature, as
follows.
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